County facts · Population change · October 24, 2026
Counties With More Deaths Than Births, 2020 to 2025
Which US counties had more deaths than births from April 2020 to July 2025, by count, rate and state, from Census estimates, with each parcel map.
Looking for counties with more deaths than births? In the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates, 2,222 of the 3,144 US counties and county equivalents recorded more deaths than births between April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2025. That is 71% of all counties. Demographers call this natural decrease. Nationally, births still outnumbered deaths by about 1,939,907 over the same period.
A county with natural decrease shrinks unless people move in. 1,132 of these 2,222 counties still grew, because moves from elsewhere in the US or from abroad more than made up the difference.
Year by year
Counties where deaths outnumbered births in each 12-month estimate year (July 1 to June 30):
| Year ending | Counties with more deaths than births | Share of counties |
|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2021 | 2,387 | 76% |
| July 1, 2022 | 2,356 | 75% |
| July 1, 2023 | 2,052 | 65% |
| July 1, 2024 | 2,047 | 65% |
| July 1, 2025 | 2,055 | 65% |
The two years ending July 1, 2021 and July 1, 2022 cover the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, when US deaths were far above their usual level.
The 25 counties with the largest natural decrease
Ranked by births minus deaths, April 2020 to July 2025 (the most negative first):
| # | County | State | Births minus deaths | As % of 2020 pop. | Total change | Parcel viewer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pinellas County | Florida | −30,340 | −3.2% | −10,527 | county web map |
| 2 | Sarasota County | Florida | −19,622 | −4.5% | +45,950 | ArcGIS Experience Builder |
| 3 | Volusia County | Florida | −17,865 | −3.2% | +53,030 | county web map |
| 4 | Brevard County | Florida | −17,683 | −2.9% | +57,366 | county web map |
| 5 | Marion County | Florida | −14,889 | −4.0% | +66,768 | county web map |
| 6 | Allegheny County | Pennsylvania | −13,027 | −1.0% | −25,546 | ArcGIS Experience Builder |
| 7 | Mohave County | Arizona | −12,640 | −5.9% | +14,841 | county web map |
| 8 | Citrus County | Florida | −11,505 | −7.5% | +17,823 | county web map |
| 9 | Charlotte County | Florida | −11,419 | −6.1% | +30,389 | county web map |
| 10 | Sumter County | Florida | −11,109 | −8.6% | +28,020 | county web map |
| 11 | Westmoreland County | Pennsylvania | −10,953 | −3.1% | −5,283 | county web map |
| 12 | Yavapai County | Arizona | −10,803 | −4.6% | +16,342 | ArcGIS Experience Builder |
| 13 | Pima County | Arizona | −10,627 | −1.0% | +31,254 | county web map |
| 14 | Pasco County | Florida | −10,424 | −1.9% | +112,607 | ArcGIS Experience Builder |
| 15 | Cuyahoga County | Ohio | −9,804 | −0.8% | −31,847 | county web map |
| 16 | Horry County | South Carolina | −9,638 | −2.7% | +76,515 | county web map |
| 17 | Palm Beach County | Florida | −9,390 | −0.6% | +83,535 | county web map |
| 18 | Barnstable County | Massachusetts | −9,046 | −3.9% | +4,475 | MassGIS Interactive Property Map |
| 19 | Hernando County | Florida | −8,312 | −4.3% | +27,191 | ArcGIS Experience Builder |
| 20 | Lake County | Florida | −8,227 | −2.1% | +72,109 | county web map |
| 21 | Erie County | New York | −7,608 | −0.8% | −7,485 | county web map |
| 22 | Lane County | Oregon | −7,190 | −1.9% | −1,385 | ORMAP statewide tax lot viewer |
| 23 | Lee County | Florida | −7,146 | −0.9% | +114,780 | county web map |
| 24 | Indian River County | Florida | −6,957 | −4.4% | +13,005 | county web map |
| 25 | Manatee County | Florida | −6,547 | −1.6% | +68,489 | ArcGIS Web AppBuilder |
Big counties top this list because they have the most people. Measured against population, the list changes and many smaller counties move up.
Steepest natural decrease relative to population
Counties with at least 10,000 residents in April 2020, ranked by births minus deaths as a share of the 2020 population:
More deaths than births, but still growing
The 15 counties with natural decrease that added the most people overall, and where the newcomers came from:
| County | Births minus deaths | Net domestic moves | Net international moves | Total change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee County, Florida | −7,146 | +83,489 | +38,538 | +114,780 |
| Pasco County, Florida | −10,424 | +112,413 | +10,391 | +112,607 |
| Palm Beach County, Florida | −9,390 | +776 | +92,513 | +83,535 |
| Horry County, South Carolina | −9,638 | +78,431 | +7,041 | +76,515 |
| St. Lucie County, Florida | −3,127 | +66,288 | +9,881 | +73,223 |
| St. Johns County, Florida | −468 | +70,554 | +3,491 | +72,902 |
| Lake County, Florida | −8,227 | +71,177 | +8,580 | +72,109 |
| Manatee County, Florida | −6,547 | +61,510 | +13,262 | +68,489 |
| Marion County, Florida | −14,889 | +73,469 | +7,582 | +66,768 |
| Brevard County, Florida | −17,683 | +66,238 | +8,548 | +57,366 |
| Volusia County, Florida | −17,865 | +62,573 | +8,174 | +53,030 |
| Sarasota County, Florida | −19,622 | +56,417 | +9,897 | +45,950 |
| Collier County, Florida | −4,801 | +23,267 | +23,442 | +41,368 |
| Sussex County, Delaware | −5,529 | +40,989 | +4,325 | +39,761 |
| Brunswick County, North Carolina | −4,453 | +41,765 | +521 | +38,007 |
The components do not add up exactly to the total change because the estimates carry a small residual.
For contrast: the largest natural increase
- Harris County, Texas: +168,876 more births than deaths (+3.6% of its 2020 population)
- Los Angeles County, California: +97,483 more births than deaths (+1.0% of its 2020 population)
- Dallas County, Texas: +92,055 more births than deaths (+3.5% of its 2020 population)
- Kings County, New York: +78,645 more births than deaths (+2.9% of its 2020 population)
- San Diego County, California: +62,921 more births than deaths (+1.9% of its 2020 population)
- Tarrant County, Texas: +59,665 more births than deaths (+2.8% of its 2020 population)
- Maricopa County, Arizona: +51,454 more births than deaths (+1.2% of its 2020 population)
- Bexar County, Texas: +47,637 more births than deaths (+2.4% of its 2020 population)
- Travis County, Texas: +46,991 more births than deaths (+3.6% of its 2020 population)
- Utah County, Utah: +46,799 more births than deaths (+7.1% of its 2020 population)
Share of counties with more deaths than births, by state
| State | Counties with natural decrease | Counties | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | 16 | 16 | 100% |
| West Virginia | 53 | 55 | 96% |
| New Hampshire | 9 | 10 | 90% |
| Arkansas | 67 | 75 | 89% |
| Pennsylvania | 59 | 67 | 88% |
| Michigan | 73 | 83 | 88% |
| Ohio | 76 | 88 | 86% |
| Tennessee | 82 | 95 | 86% |
| Vermont | 12 | 14 | 86% |
| Alabama | 57 | 67 | 85% |
| Illinois | 85 | 102 | 83% |
| Kentucky | 100 | 120 | 83% |
| Mississippi | 68 | 82 | 83% |
| Oklahoma | 63 | 77 | 82% |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 5 | 80% |
| North Carolina | 79 | 100 | 79% |
| New Mexico | 26 | 33 | 79% |
| South Carolina | 36 | 46 | 78% |
| Connecticut | 7 | 9 | 78% |
| Missouri | 89 | 115 | 77% |
| Florida | 51 | 67 | 76% |
| New York | 47 | 62 | 76% |
| Oregon | 27 | 36 | 75% |
| Iowa | 74 | 99 | 75% |
| Kansas | 78 | 105 | 74% |
| Wisconsin | 53 | 72 | 74% |
| Montana | 40 | 56 | 71% |
| Indiana | 65 | 92 | 71% |
| Nevada | 12 | 17 | 71% |
| Georgia | 110 | 159 | 69% |
| Virginia | 92 | 133 | 69% |
| Washington | 25 | 39 | 64% |
| Louisiana | 39 | 64 | 61% |
| Nebraska | 55 | 93 | 59% |
| North Dakota | 31 | 53 | 58% |
| Colorado | 37 | 64 | 58% |
| Minnesota | 50 | 87 | 57% |
| Massachusetts | 8 | 14 | 57% |
| Wyoming | 13 | 23 | 57% |
| Texas | 143 | 254 | 56% |
| Arizona | 8 | 15 | 53% |
| Maryland | 11 | 24 | 46% |
| California | 25 | 58 | 43% |
| South Dakota | 27 | 66 | 41% |
| Idaho | 17 | 44 | 39% |
| Delaware | 1 | 3 | 33% |
| New Jersey | 7 | 21 | 33% |
| Alaska | 9 | 30 | 30% |
| Utah | 6 | 29 | 21% |
| Hawaii | 0 | 5 | 0% |
The District of Columbia is a single county equivalent and is left out of the state table. Connecticut appears by planning region: since 2022 the Census Bureau uses its 9 planning regions instead of its 8 historic counties, and Platbookmapper's county pages still follow the historic counties, so those rows have no parcel-viewer link.
What natural decrease means for land and property
- More estate sales. Where deaths outnumber births, more property passes through estates. Probate and deed records at the county show when land changes hands this way.
- Heirs' property. Land that passes without a will can end up owned jointly by many relatives. Before buying, check the recorded chain of title, not just the name on the tax bill.
- Older owners, long holdings. Rural parcels in these counties are often held for decades. The parcel viewer's owner and sale-date fields, where shown, give a quick sense of that.
- Growth can still happen. As the table above shows, plenty of these counties are growing because people move in, so check the county's own numbers rather than assuming decline.
Related guides
- US counties losing population
- Where people are moving in the US
- Fastest growing counties in the US
- Least populated counties in the US
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, county totals, Vintage 2025 (April 1, 2020 estimates base and July 1, 2020–2025 estimates, with components of change). Births minus deaths is the sum of the file's NATURALCHG columns for 2020 (April to June) through 2025. 50 states and the District of Columbia.
- Platbookmapper county GIS directory (live data file behind our county pages, pulled October 24, 2026) for each official parcel viewer.